The trend today is to look at the number of admits and rejects at a particular school, and form an application strategy based on what has occurred to others. Applicants post their triumphs and failures at a school, for their profile, and many others conscientiously note the results and then apply to that school or try their luck elsewhere. When you do this as an applicant, there is a problem. The fact is there is no comfort in admission numbers, and, largely, in the law of averages. Admissions to the US graduate schools is not science, to give out predictable results for one set of input. It is not an engine that eternally starts when you are sure of gasoline in it. Yet we don’t say that the numbers are not important. They have their place. But to only have that and believe that you would get in to a program, because the trend says that the GRE / GPA metrics you have are well with the scope of admission, would be a gamble, if not silly. So what else matters? What would be as critical as your GPA and GRE is what you bring to the classroom at your graduate school. Would others learn from your experience and skill, do you have a history of sensitive leadership, can you help your department in its research, in short, what you would bring to the the table that the school would benefit. That matters. Year after year we have seen applicants bucking the trend. GPA and GRE were important, but routinely exceptions were made. The hopeless candidate when seen through the prism of his academics, was gladly accepted. The consistent aristocrat in academics was shown the door. Difference might be in what you say and how well you say. Sometimes a thoughtful explanation of your failure sloughs off the weakness in it. Sometimes blathering about your success obscures your real achievements. Words matter. SOP matters. Stats may be a guide, but it’s not a guarantee.